Monday, February 13, 2012

Greece votes for a lesser evil.. By Dr.Nick Skrekas

Petrol bomb explodes outside Greece parliament (Reuters/Panayiotis Tzamaros)

14 February 2012

Nick Skrekas
After the street violence subsided overnight in Athens, it is time to look at the remnants of the political system since the parliamentary seal of approval was affixed to the Troika bailout with its attached austerity strings.
Even the most ardent supports could only muster an argument of it being "the lesser evil" given the grave state of odious fiscal affairs.
On Sunday post-midnight Athens time, 199 deputies out of the 300 gave the milestone nod to the take-up of a Euro 130 billion bailout which will ensure liquidity until 2015 as well as a debt reduction of hopefully Euro 100 Billion imposed "voluntarily" on private bondholders to restore solvency by 2020 of the debt-laden Mediterranean country. No -one can guarantee the funding or haircut without stringent conditionality and good will, but it's a last shot to avoid full Argentinian-style implosion.
This final option to avert implosion has wreaked dramatic change to the party political landscape, on top of the ritual protests outside the parliament chanting "burn it down". A turbulent total 45 deputies has been expelled from the three parties forming the coalition backing of technocrat prime minister Lucas Papademos. In fact, the second largest party represented in parliament is now a disparate and lopsided number of 63 independents.
The reasons for breaking party voting discipline are many for the many. They extend from parochial populism to ritual hypocrisy based on a calculus of political cost. Some stuck to principles, other resented colonial-style ultimatums, while others could not shoulder the weight of public displeasures. A handful wanted to defect from faltering parties that were bigger liabilities to their re-election chances.
Former ruling socialist PASOK no longer enjoys a majority, nor does it have enough votes to survive any vote of confidence test, since its numbers have dwindled from 153 to 131. The conservative New Democracy party also suffered defections and resignations and now counts 62 deputies from 83 prior to Sunday. However, its leader Antonis Samaras, can now dictate when national elections can be held and try to capture the benefits of being in front if not determinative in fickle voter polls. And these elections are unlikely to take place end of April 29 because of procedural and legal hurdles to the bailout deals and haircuts. The most likely date is for three weeks after Orthodox Easter, and that way everyone has digested the red eggs and spit roasted lamb.
Even so it is hard to digest what will be offered to the weary Greek voter and taxpayer. Former socialist prime minister George A Papandreou (GAP) is being pressed to formally kick off the success process this Thursday post the Eurogroup meeting. Given languishing electoral appeal, the poison chalice of party leadership from GAP will likely go to finance minister Evangelos Venizelos. Big Benny is the favourite and is backed by other party leading heavy weights. Even after his late-night troika and bond holder round-the-clock meetings, the FinMin is unlikely to get much sleep since Pasok is a damaged brand after two years of tax hikes and cuts, as well as squabbling and deputy uprisings.
Centre-right New Democracy also has its challenges since grass roots elected Samaras had to do a backflip and come round to supporting this new Memo 2.0 on Sunday. He will also have to issue written binding assurances to other Eurozone countries, the IMF, ECB and Commission. It will diminish his image of a stubborn pro-growth maverick as he accedes to the wishes of official and multilateral lenders. Unpalatable but again "the lesser evil" …
However, if as some suspect the 21 conservative dissenters form a new parliamentary and party block, this could depress New Democracy's first across the post poll rankings. It appears almost certain that new centre left and centre right anti-Memo and anti-Troika parties will be formed in the crucible of ideologically unstable times.
While it is never easy to approve cuts to minimum wages, debase collective bargaining sector agreements, and slash supplementary pensions, few wish to admit any local institutional blame for four decades of bad leadership that encouraged the worst habits. The jury is still out on the distribution of blame for the fact Greece is teetering on the edge of the abyss - meaning we are facing a chaotic Euro exit, a disorderly default domestically and otherwise, and then subsequent geopolitical isolation.
The unhappiness was palpable in the populations and continues. Greeks were never told the truth as to where they were being led since the fall of the junta of 1974 with some administrations adding more to the debt and dependence parabola than others. But that post-junta restoration of partisan and patronage democracy was a fraudulent and depressive illusion. Now a new era has begun where virtue and candour are demanded by voters that can longer be bought off or silenced by loaned cash, favours or false left-right dichotomies left over from the Greek civil war.
The justified anger in some quarters and mistrust unfortunately spilled over into serious property damage late on Sunday into the early hours of Monday with 45 building destroyed mostly by fires. The anarchist and other suspect groups, which don't represent mainstream values, collided with riot police and the chaos provided cover for homeless and illegal poverty stricken immigrants to loot about 150 premises. Thankfully, there were no deaths but it has crushed sentiment and shops in downtown Athens as authorities engage in a blame game as to why the rampage was not contained even as 74 rioters were arrested.
What these run-wild rampaging groups don't consider is that they are sowing the seeds of more tough and repressive measures for order. However, putting Athens in perspective, the London riots last year and the ongoing Occupy Wall Street movements across the world have probably led to more arrest and injuries. There were 70 protesters hospitalised but none had serious problems other than light injuries and tear gas inhalation-related breathing problems, it is hardly the war zone that international media beat the drum about.
Not exactly a war zone as some portrayed it. But cheap sensationalism sells from a "copy-cat" foreign press corps camped out in front of the Hellenic Parliament. It smacks of cultural racism or perhaps ongoing reality-show news coverage.
To the chagrin of some who preferred radical shock therapies, were defeatist enough to predict bankruptcy no matter what, or other fans of conspiracy theories that believe some European economic powerhouses are engaging in a leveraged takeover of Greece, the country is still afloat - but just by the skin of its teeth. Greece allowed itself to get to point where there no good choices left on the table and even after the compromise nothing is entirely resolved other than just this last shot has not been squandered or lost for good.
It still has a credibility deficit and has to convince the world it will deliver, become sustainable and competitive and its brand has not been permanently dealt a death blow. All tough calls to convince many that Greece isn't an undeserving bottomless financial pit where good money is thrown after bad.
And there are solutions that are crucial for the country to move forward away from structural reforms of internal markets, sensible non-fire sale privatisation and generating primary budget surpluses. They have to do with values and ideals to prevent a relapse of political capture and failed elite institutions including academia and big media.
It is time to cut waste, corruption, special interests and parasitic deal and give those resources to where they can ensure social justice and are in fact much better spent - the poor, the sick, the homeless, the unemployed and low income pensioners. Delays and dithering only cost more to the weakest in this community and subvert any chance of the program being implemented and succeeding.
Foreign powers are to blame historically for much, but there are no more excuses. Greece now desperately needs to get its own house in order by committing to meritocracy, transparency, and honourable transparent leaders at all levels of public life.
And there are some promising new movements with fresh professional faces gathering momentum due to their powerful vision, convincing voice and untainted legitimacy which can provide a new much needed breed of local leaders. "Forward Greece Today" is one of the most prominent and digitally savvy, and promises extroversion not navel gazing. For an electorate sick of nepotism and powerful dominating families, it may have a novel appeal.
Solutions for any mess, even the Greek crisis, can be found. They include long overdue exploitation of the country's resource wealth from northern Greek gold mines, rare earths under islet, and stretch to massive deposits of oil and gas in the Aegean, Ionian and the plates underneath Crete toward Libya. The problems are always vision, unified commitment, and patriotic (not nationalist)
But only the people of this country can mandate the vision and execution so evils can be avoided in future. Vox Populi Vox Dei.
Nick Skrekas works as an analysts and lawyer, and has lived the European and Greek sovereign crisis on the ground and blow by blow since it initially exploded. View his full profile here.

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